VLNC Archives - The Counterfactual

Using models disconnected from reality to justify huge ‘endgame’ interventions

By Clive Bates / 6 November 2022 / 6 Comments / Nicotine

New Zealand is planning to introduce so-called ‘endgame’ measures, including the removal of nicotine from legally available tobacco. We examine and review the modelling used to justify the measure and find multiple fatal flaws.

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FDA spreads confusion about nicotine and smoking

By Clive Bates / 23 December 2021 / 46 Comments / Food and Drug Administration, Nicotine, Risk communication, Tobacco industry

FDA has authorised 22nd Century to claim a reduced nicotine cigarette is a reduced risk product. This will spread confusion and divert smokers from better choices.

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Twenty reasons to be sceptical about rules lowering nicotine levels in cigarettes – and what to do instead

By Clive Bates / 5 December 2021 / 9 Comments / Food and Drug Administration, Nicotine

Using regulation to remove nearly all the nicotine from cigarettes is similar in effect to a prohibition – with all that entails. That will trigger a wide range of responses by consumers and suppliers. These have barely been studied or understood.

Twenty reasons to be sceptical about rules lowering nicotine levels in cigarettes – and what to do instead Read More