Nicotine 2040 – Tobacco Reporter
My views on the evolving nicotine and tobacco landscape, looking out to 2040.
An extract:
Fourth, regulation and markets. The twin forces of consumer demand and innovation will squeeze the cigarette market into contraction and lower profitability. The greatest danger is that the rise of smoke-free alternatives will be treated as a threat, not an opportunity, and be met with prohibitions or excessive regulation and taxation. Although such regulation will aim to reduce nicotine use by constraining supply, its effect will be to switch from lawful commercial supply to illicit, criminal and informal supply. This effect is already visible in supposedly strong regulatory jurisdictions like Australia and the United States, where authorized products from approved suppliers meet less than 10 percent of the vape market. Jurisdictions such as Brazil and India have imposed prohibitions, but all that means is that the regulator is missing in action along with any consumer protection. Prohibitions trigger the nasty triad of more smoking, more illicit vapes and more risky workarounds. Whatever the regulation, there will be supply. Banned products do not simply disappear. Whether the supply is lawful or illegal will become the nicotine and tobacco policy conflict of the coming decade. The market will remain lawful if (and only if) the policies adopted for smoke-free alternatives are risk-proportionate, focus on consumer protection and meet the adult demand for low-risk nicotine.